The non-farm payroll is coming up on Friday 4 November 2022. As a key economic indicator, it often leads to significant market movements.
The NFP is always a highly anticipated release. It shows the change in the number of employed people in the US from month to month, not including the farming sector. It’s commonly regarded as an indicator of the health of the US economy, and that means it has an impact on the USD and wider markets.
If the NFP reading is high, stocks and the dollar often make gains. While a lower than expected reading can lead to a bearish trend.
What to expect from this month’s NFP?
The job report on Friday is expected to be weaker, which would usually suggest losses by the dollar and many shares but gains for gold.
A surprise to the upside would likely have the opposite effect, especially because it could reduce expectations of a pivot by the Fed.
However, earnings season and quantitative tightening complicate matters for shares and indices.
Last month’s slightly positive surprise drove gold down about $15 and euro-dollar about 0.6c in the immediate aftermath.
M15’s ATR for gold peaked after the last release around $5.65. Similar volatility seems likely this time unless there’s a significant surprise.
Extended follow-through in the direction of the release this time seems less certain given changing expectations for the funds rate in Q1 ’23.
Are you ready to trade the NFP?
The response to the NFP can sometimes cause market volatility. We suggest you fund your account in advance of the release so you’re ready to trade any opportunities that arise.
The Exness Team